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不翻图，鸽了

"The more things change, the more they stay the same" - Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr

“事情越变化越相同。”

In 1932, the US was in a crisis. The Great Depression had been raging for 3 years and under the administration of former geologist Herbert Hoover not much seems to be getting better. People are out of work, increasingly go hungry, and live-in shantytowns; with tensions only seeming to grow by the day. As the Democratic party gears up for what looks to be an incredibly easy election, they nominate New York Governor and former Secretary of the Navy Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Accepting the nomination after winning the first ballot easily against Speaker John Nance Garner and former Gov. Al Smith, he delivers an unorthodox acceptance speech calling for an entire reshaping of the country and economy and promises the American people, “a new deal”.

1932年美国陷入了危机。大萧条已经肆虐了3年。然而在前地质学家赫伯特·胡佛的治理下情况似乎没有好转。人民民不聊生，紧张局势与日俱增。民主党正在为看似轻松无比的选举做准备，他们提名了纽约州州长、前海军部长富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福。在轻松击败议长约翰·南斯·加纳（和前州长阿尔·史密斯赢得第一轮投票后罗斯福获得了提名。他发表了一篇非正统的提名演讲，呼吁彻底重塑国家和经济，向美国人民承诺“新政”。

This is the first Point of Divergence. The Depression is slightly worse in TROTL due to further mismanagement under Hoover, resulting in FDR galvanizing the party with his campaign and winning on the first ballot. Having been nominated, it now comes time to pick a vice presidential candidate. Considering the weak challenge, the South put forward at the convention but the necessity to keep conservatives who were wary about the New Deal’s programs dealing with unions and social services, FDR surprises the nation by picking businessman and well-known Democratic backer Joseph P. Kennedy for the nomination. Kennedy, with a reputation as a very successful businessman and with Irish Catholic roots, would help the ticket by both quelling conservative and business fears that Roosevelt would destroy their way of life with his new programs, as well as increase Catholic ethnic turnout in the key swing states of Pennsylvania and New York. While some of the party elders are dismayed over their lack of influence on the ticket, they are swept up in the excitement of a united party certain to win and ready to change the nation.

这是我们的第一个分歧点。由于胡佛的领导比OTL更加糟糕，大萧条的程度更加恶化。罗斯福用他的竞选活动激励民主党并在第一轮投票中获胜。在获得提名后就是挑选副总统候选人的时候了。考虑到选举几乎没有的难度，南方州提出有必要让保守派对新政中涉及工会和社会服务的计划保持警惕。出人意料的是，罗斯福提名了商人，著名的民主党支持者约瑟夫·P·肯尼迪。肯尼迪是一位非常成功的爱尔兰天主教商人，他将平息保守派和商界对罗斯福的新计划将破坏他们的生活方式的担忧，以及在关键摇摆州宾夕法尼亚和纽约增加天主教族裔的投票率。虽然一些党内元老对他们在选举中缺乏影响力感到沮丧，但他们却被一个团结一致的政党所激动。这个政党将改变整个国家。

Obviously OTL FDR picked Nance Garner as his VP to quell the South’s fears after the disastrous run by Smith against Hoover. However, considering most of the Upper South already supported Roosevelt and the Deep South would fall in line, and that he only picked Garner because he was still unsure how beatable Hoover would be, I think it’s quite likely he would go another way in TRO. Kennedy also makes sense as a choice, having been a personal friend of Roosevelt for many years with deep Democratic connections throughout the Irish Catholic cities of the North, while also holding well known moderate-conservative views. Therefore, he would be acceptable to everyone and likely would be nominated.

在史密斯对胡佛的惨败后，OTL中的罗斯福显而易见的选择了南斯·加纳为副总统以平息南方的担忧。即使考虑到上南部的大多数人已经支持罗斯福，深南部的人也会支持罗斯福，罗斯福仍然选择加纳是因为他还不确定胡佛是否会被击败，我认为他很有可能会在TRO中走另一条路。肯尼迪作为一个选择也是有道理的，他多年来一直是罗斯福的朋友，在北方爱尔兰天主教城市有着深厚的民主联系，同时也持有众所周知的温和保守观点。因此他将为所有人所接受，并有可能被提名。

As is destiny, the FDR-Kennedy ticket wins the 1932 election in a landslide, sending America’s first Catholic VP and first radical president to the White House. Alongside massive majorities in Congress, things move at a quick pace as in OTL. The 100 Days go as planned, the first New Deal is passed, and although Kennedy is often brought in to assuage conservative fears that the government is doing too much too fast, most Southerners are brought around to the program and begin to voice their support. With their help, Roosevelt is able to go even further than in OTL towards passing comprehensive economic reforms that quickly bring relief to millions of destitute Americans. However, one group has continued to stand in Roosevelt’s way: a conservative majority on the Supreme Court that has struck down most of his more extensive programs, even though they are supported by the great majority of both the people and Congress. Enraged by his efforts to save the country being continuously shot down, and with a new wave of support shown by Democratic wins in the midterm of 1934, Roosevelt announces his most ambitious reform yet: The Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 1935.

与命运一样，罗斯福·肯尼迪以压倒性优势赢得了1932年的选举。美国第一位天主教副总统和第一位激进总统入主白宫。除了国会的绝大多数席位外，事情的发展速度就像OTL一样快。第一个新政在100天之内如预期一样通过。尽管肯尼迪经常被请来缓和保守派对政府行动太快的担忧，但大多数南方人都被带到该计划中并开始表达他们的支持。在他们的帮助下，罗斯福能够比在OTL中走得更远：通过全面的经济改革迅速为数百万贫困的美国人带来救济。然而，有一个团体仍然在阻碍罗斯福：最高法院中的保守派多数否决了他大部分更广泛的计划，即使这些计划得到了绝大多数人民和国会的支持。罗斯福被他拯救国家的努力不断遭到击落所激怒，并在1934年中期选举中民主党获胜的新一波支持下，宣布了他迄今为止最雄心勃勃的改革：1935年司法程序改革法案。

Immediately opposed by most Democrats, a large portion of the public, and even his own Vice President as a ploy to pack the courts, the bill caused the majority that had ruled Washington unchallenged to nearly split. Roosevelt and his liberal faction were insistent that the bill’s controversial language must be in the final text because of the Justice’s insistence on striking down the programs that the country desperately needed, while conservatives argued that this was a giant step towards the Communism that had arisen in Russia. In the middle, keeping his opinions mainly private and only revealed in his many telephone calls with congressional leadership, sat Joseph P. Kennedy. Although he was a self-admitted conservative, he was also a very cagey operator who knew how to sense a moment. He could change his opinion at a minute's notice to match the will of the people, and he took great pleasure in lording his superiority over those he considered weak minded and feeble. This is essentially who Kennedy was OTL, especially with his work. When he was appointed the SEC chairman after the Great Depression, many liberals thought the former stock trader and businessman would lead the agency to ruin. Instead, he surprised them all by using his inside knowledge to completely clean up Wall Street and put in many of the reforms that still remain today, while still keeping his core conservative views. Although Roosevelt pleaded with him to publicly support his effort on the off chance it might woo conservatives to his side, Kennedy would politely refuse in order to see which way the wind would blow.

这项法案立即遭到了大多数民主党人、大部分公众甚至副总统的反对。这被认为是一种向法庭施压的手段。它导致了裁决华盛顿不受挑战的多数党几近分裂。罗斯福和自由派坚持认为由于法律坚持要废除该国迫切需要的计划，该法案的争议性措辞必须出现在最终文本中，而保守派则认为这是朝着俄罗斯出现的共产主义迈出的一大步。至于坐在中间的肯尼迪则保持了他的意见，只在与国会领导的电话中透露自己的想法。虽然他是一个自认保守的人，但他也是一个非常谨慎的操作者。他可以在一分钟内改变自己的观点以符合人民的意愿，他非常高兴能够凌驾于那些他认为意志薄弱和软弱的人之上。这就是肯尼迪的在OTL的表现，尤其与他工作相关时。大萧条后，当他被任命为证券交易委员会主席时，许多自由主义者认为这位前股票交易员和商人会导致证券交易委员会破产。让所有人都感到惊讶的是，他利用自己的内幕知识彻底清理了华尔街并实施了许多至今仍然存在的改革同时仍然保留了自己的核心保守观点。尽管罗斯福恳求他公开支持他的努力以此吸引保守派支持他，肯尼迪却礼貌地拒绝以观察风向。

The wind was in fact blowing very hard, but not in the direction Roosevelt wanted. As the bill continued to plod its way through committee, backed by a motley crew of empowered liberals and progressives elected in the 1932 and 1934 landslides, more and more continued to speak out. There were marches in major cities and the Memorial Pool seemed to be occupied by a different group every day. Most stayed peaceful, but as the fears and anger at the bill grew, some turned violent. A large riot in Washington led by former veterans who called themselves the Court Army, and opposed the bill because they thought it meant the end of independent branches of government, had to be crushed by an army division led by Douglas MacArthur. But still, Roosevelt plodded on, much to the unease of his friends and allies who feared the country was now heading in the wrong direction, and that the shoe would fall any day now. Unfortunately, they turned out to be right. While speaking in Miami, the 32nd President of the United States was shot and killed by a man who believed the Court Packing bill was the gateway to Communism. The crowd screamed and rushed the attacker but nothing could be done for Roosevelt, who had been shot in the head twice by a handgun, and who died en route to the hospital. A disgruntled Italian immigrant tried to kill Roosevelt in Miami in 1933, days before his inauguration, on his suspicion that he was a Communist. Joseph Kennedy was still in shock while he was sworn in at the White House after being rushed there in the dead of night to become the 33rd and first Catholic President of the United States on December 7th, 1935.

风确实刮得很大，但不是罗斯福想要的方向。在1932年和1934年选举产生的一批自由主义者和进步主义者持续的支持下，该法案继续艰难地通过委员会。各大城市都有游行，纪念堂似乎每天都被不同的人群占据。大多数人保持平静，但随着对该法案的恐惧和愤怒加剧，一些人变得暴力。华盛顿发生了一场由自称为法院军的退伍军人领导的大规模暴乱。他们反对该法案，因为他们认为这意味着政府独立部门的终结，因此必须由道格拉斯·麦克阿瑟领导的一个陆军师镇压运动。罗斯福步履蹒跚，这让他的朋友和盟友们非常不安，他们担心这个国家现在正朝着错误的方向前进。不幸的是，结果证明他们是对的。当罗斯福在迈阿密发表讲话时，美国第32任总统被一名男子枪杀，该男子认为法院法案是通往共产主义的大门。人群尖叫着冲向袭击者，但对罗斯福无能为力。罗斯福头部两次被手枪击中，在送往医院的途中死亡。1933年，就职典礼前几天，一名心怀不满的意大利移民就在迈阿密试图杀害罗斯福，因为他怀疑罗斯福是一名共产党员。1935年12月7日，约瑟夫·肯尼迪在夜深人静的情况下被赶往白宫，成为美国第33任也是第一任天主教总统。

The Kennedy presidency, having started with a bang and not a whimper, immediately was seized by Joe as the perfect opportunity to make his mark on America. However, although he had big ideas, his domestic affairs were mainly controlled by the will of the people who overwhelmingly supported the New Deal recovery plan. He would not be able to turn the tide of big government as many conservatives hoped he would in order to not risk an even bigger blowback from the nation, but he did throw them more than a few bones. In his first 100 days he withdrew the deadly court packing bill and began slowing down the pace of New Deal legislation being drafted in Congress. This was all that was needed to smooth over the problems with the conservatives who felt that the party was moving too far too fast, while his promises to continue and expand the New Deal, just more slowly, brought liberals into the fold. In order to appease the more radical supporters of FDR, Kennedy supported the nomination of Henry A Wallace for the VP slot for the 1936 election, in part simply to balance the ticket, but also due to Wallace’s great success as Secretary of Agriculture. Kennedy was rewarded with a massive landslide victory in 1936 brought on by the recovery of the nation and sympathy for the Democrats after the assassination of FDR. His position secured and domestic matters squared away, Kennedy began to turn to his true forte: foreign policy.

肯尼迪总统并没有碌碌无为而是轰轰烈烈抓住了这个绝佳的机会，在美国史上留下了自己的一笔。但尽管他有远大的想法，他的国内事务主要是由绝大多数支持新政复苏计划的人控制的。他无法像许多保守派所希望的那样能够扭转大政府的潮流。他不愿冒着来自更大打击的风险，但他确实给与了一些补偿。在他的头100天里，他撤回了致命的法院法案并开始放慢国会正在起草的新政立法的步伐。这就是解决保守派问题的关键，因为保守派认为党的行动太快了，而他承诺和自由派一起继续扩大新政，只是放慢一下脚步。为了安抚罗斯福更激进的支持者，肯尼迪支持提名亨利·华莱士为1936年选举的副总统候选人。既是为了平衡选票，也是因为华莱士在担任农业部长方面取得了巨大成功。肯尼迪在1936年获得了压倒性的胜利，这是由于罗斯福遇刺后国家的复苏和对民主党的同情。随着肯尼迪的地位稳固，国内事务也得到解决，他开始转向自己真正的长处：外交。

Kennedy knew the place where he held the strongest convictions is where he could make the most impact: the world stage. Despite his conservative credentials, he despised the ancient empires of Europe whom he saw as exploitative and authoritarian to his fellow minorities, and he held the greatest revulsion for the one that had only recently freed his home of Ireland: The UK. He was especially disgusted by the victory of the Michael Collins led Pro-Treaty forces in the Irish Civil War. As the world crept closer to war, he watched with contempt as the rabble rousers like Winston Churchill called for tough action against Herr Hitler, leading the country into a war he considered to be wholly unnecessary. Although he was a friend of Neville Chamberlain and supported the policy of appeasement, Kennedy began to introduce legislation that would further bind the US to neutrality as well as withdrawing its various economic and military support from the UK and its allies. This was done through the passing of a very strong Neutrality Act in 1937 (“no cash and carry" clause) and the Homeland Security Act of 1938, which bound the US to neutrality and banned it from helping out other nations with war materials and began withdrawing previous US commitments overseas respectively.

肯尼迪坚定地相信他能产生最大影响的地方：世界舞台。尽管他有保守的资历，但他鄙视欧洲的古老帝国，他认为这些帝国对他的少数民族同胞来说是剥削和专制的。他对最近刚刚解放他的家乡爱尔兰的帝国——英国——抱有最大的反感。他尤其厌恶迈克尔·柯林斯领导的亲条约部队在爱尔兰内战中的胜利。当世界越来越接近战争的时候，他鄙视地看着温斯顿·丘吉尔这样的煽动者呼吁对希特勒采取强硬行动导致国家陷入一场他认为完全没有必要的战争。肯尼迪是内维尔·张伯伦的朋友并支持绥靖政策，他也引入立法进一步约束美国保持中立并从英国及其盟友那里撤回各种经济和军事支持。1937年通过的一项非常强硬的中立法案（“无现金携带”条款）和1938年的国土安全法案约束美国保持中立，禁止美国用战争物资帮助其他国家且开始撤回美国此前在海外的承诺。

However, stability was not meant to be, for on September 1st 1939, Hitler’s armies plunged into Poland and set off the second Great War in 20 years. In the US, it was seen as nothing more than the Europeans once again descending into violence for land and empire, and both the nation and its president wished to stay out of it. Still smarting over the fall of Chamberlain to the hated Churchill, Kennedy refused to make any deviations from the Neutrality Act and publicly predicted that Britain would lose the war, acts that enraged the UK population which continued to suffer from German attacks. Despite repeated pleas, bargains, and threats, Kennedy remained steadfast in his neutrality even as the population began to warm to intervention, which led to the devastation of England during the blitz due to lack of airpower and other war material.

然而局势并未像想象中稳定。1939年9月1日，希特勒的军队突袭波兰，引发了20年来的第二次大战。在美国，人们认为这只不过是欧洲人为了土地和帝国再次陷入暴力，国家和总统都希望置身事外。肯尼迪仍然对张伯伦被可恨的丘吉尔打败感到痛心，他拒绝修改《中立法》并公开预测英国将输掉这场战争。这些行为激怒了持续遭受德国袭击的英国民众。尽管一再恳求、讨价还价和威胁，肯尼迪仍然保持中立，哪怕民众开始热衷于进行干预。这导致了闪电战期间英国因缺乏空中力量和其他战争物资而遭受的破坏。

The freeze between the former friends began to thaw only in mid-1940, when the images on every newspaper of an England in ruin finally began to win the public over. Bowing to public pressure and wanting to butter up the interventionists in the run up to the 1940 election, Kennedy reluctantly supported a modified version of the original “cash and carry” legislation, which put restrictions on what could and could not be sold to support a war, and with the explicit condition that this material not be used to draw the US into any conflict. England, happy to get any support at all, gladly obeyed any stipulations the legislation postulated, but they still remained suspicious of the man in the White House, a feeling that would only grow over time.

直到1940年中，两位前朋友之间的僵持才开始解冻。当时每家报纸上都刊登了一幅英国废墟的图片开始赢得公众的支持。在1940年大选前，肯尼迪屈服于公众压力想要讨好干预主义者。他不情愿地支持修改原有的“现金携带”法案，该法案限制那些或许可以被用于战争的物品出售。这些材料不得用于将美国卷入任何冲突。英国很高兴得到任何支持，也很乐意遵守立法规定。但他们仍然对白宫的这个人持怀疑态度，这种感觉随着时间的推移而增加。

Due to Wallace’s radicalism; especially his open denouncement of segregation and supportive statements about Bukharin’s USSR, as well as a scandal over his unorthodox religious views; Conservatives within the party sought to replace him on the ticket. President Kennedy remained officially neutral, but in private supported Happy Chandler. Kennedy had become a mentor to Chandler while he was Kentucky governor. When Chandler, who had long believed that he was destined to be President, asked Kennedy to appoint Marvel Mills Logan, Kentucky's junior senator, to be to the US Supreme Court, Kennedy obliged, and even pressured Logan to accept the nomination. This created a Senate vacancy to which Chandler, as governor, could appoint himself. During his tenure in the Senate Chandler had earned great respect from fellow democrats as well as significant public support due to his bombastic speeches. Chandler used these debate skills, and the strong support of most of the Democratic establishment, to win the VP nomination in the 1940 Democratic Convention. Kennedy would re-appoint a bitter Wallace as Agriculture Secretary once again.

由于华莱士的激进主义，特别是他公开谴责种族隔离和支持布哈林苏联的言论以及他非正统的宗教观点导致的丑闻。党内的保守派人士试图在候选人名单上取代他。肯尼迪总统在官方上保持中立，但私下里支持“快乐的”钱德勒。肯尼迪在钱德勒担任肯塔基州州长期间成为他的导师。长期以来一直认为自己注定会成为总统的钱德勒要求肯尼迪任命肯塔基州的初级参议员马维尔·米尔斯·洛根为美国最高法院法官时，肯尼迪迫使洛根接受提名，这就产生了一个参议院空缺。作为州长，钱德勒任命了他自己。钱德勒在参议院任职期间，因其优秀的演讲赢得了民主党同僚的极大尊重和公众的大力支持。钱德勒利用这些辩论技巧以及大多数民主党建制派的大力支持，在1940年民主党大会上赢得了副总统提名。肯尼迪则再次任命华莱士为农业部长。

With Germany rolling across France, and Britain facing its darkest hour, the strident isolationism of JPK was increasingly coming under question. To the great shock of many Wendell Willkie, an interventionist, was selected as the Republican Presidential candidate for 1940. He also picked up support from some of the left angered with JPK’s move to the right and dropping of Wallace. The New Deal itself was not highly salient, as Willkie supported JPK’s more moderate plan. This left foreign policy as the most noticeable issue of the campaign. Willkie accused JPK as leaving the nation unprepared for war, and even accused him of being sympathetic to the reactionary forces. While JPK emphasized the need for experience in such times, Willkie effectively countered this by using JPK’s foreign policy related gaffes, most notably when he publicly stated that “"Democracy is finished in England. It may be here.” JPK sought to capitalize on isolationist sentiment, declaring that he would "not send American boys into any foreign wars." While undermined by Britain's increased success in the Battle of Britain as the year moved on, Willkie still seemed a great threat to the president. Willkie also ran strongly to the left than JPK on civil rights, pledging to integrate the civil service and armed forces. Concern over Chandler being given the VP nomination, and JPK not promoting African Americans as FDR did in response OTL, led to Willkie gaining a lot more of the African American vote. The result is a far closer election than OTL, with JPK just managing to win the popular vote and election. Due to the threat of this interventionist movement, JPK was forced to adopt many more interventionist policies by a party fearful of losing the midterms over the issue. With Willkie’s strong support, the destroyers-for-bases deal, Arsenal of Democracy speech, and lend-lease act all occur despite JPK’s great reluctance.

随着德国横扫法国，英国来到至暗时刻，JPK尖锐的孤立主义越来越受到质疑。令许多人震惊的是，干预主义者温德尔·威尔基被选为1940年共和党总统候选人。左翼对JPK右倾和华莱士下台感到愤怒，他们选择支持威尔基。新政问题则并不尖锐，因为威尔基也支持JPK更温和的计划。于是，外交政策就成为竞选活动中最引人注目的问题。威尔基指责JPK让国家对战争毫无准备，甚至指责他同情反动势力。虽然JPK强调在这样的时代需要经验，但威尔基用JPK在外交政策方面的失态有效地反驳了这一点。最明显的是，JPK公开表示“英国的民主已经结束”。JPK试图利用孤立主义情绪，宣布他“不会让美国卷入任何外国战争”。尽管随着时间的推移，英国在英国战争中取得的胜利越来越大，威尔基仍然对总统构成了巨大威胁。威尔基在民权问题上比JPK更倾向左派，承诺将公务员和武装部队结合起来。对钱德勒获得副总统提名的担忧，以及JPK没有像罗斯福在回应OTL时那样提拔非洲裔美国人的担忧，导致威尔基在非洲裔美国人中获得了更多选票。结果是一场比OTL更接近的选举，JPK艰难的赢得了选举。由于这场干涉主义运动的威胁，JPK被迫采取了更多的干涉主义政策，因为一个政党担心在这一问题上失去中期选举。在威基的大力支持下，基地换驱逐舰协议、民主兵工厂演讲和租借法案都在JPK极不情愿的情况下实现了。

Then comes the day of infamy: Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, which features a few changes from OTL. There will be a long explanation of it released at some point, but for now have the short version. The early battles of the war including Pearl Harbor, the Coral Sea, and Midway all go worse for the USA and due in part to these disasters, JPK and Chandler adopt a Pacific First strategy, much to the chagrin and anger of the English and French. However, despite all of Japanese efforts, they cannot stop the oncoming tide of US naval dominance, and the forces of the IJN and USN meet at the Battle of the Solomons. Japanese losses in this battle, including the great loss of skilled air crew, proved irreplaceable, with the Kidō Butai losing all claim to dominance over the seas or skies.

然后是臭名昭著的一天：日本对珍珠港的突然袭击。这里和OTL有些变化。以后我们会对此做一个更长的解释，但现在有一个简短的版本。包括珍珠港、珊瑚海和中途岛在内的早期战争对美国来说都更加糟糕。JPK和钱德勒因此采取了太平洋优先战略，这让英国人和法国人感到愤怒。尽管日本做出了种种努力，他们无法阻止美国海军主导战争，日本海军和美国海军的部队在所罗门群岛相遇。日本在这场战斗中的损失，包括熟练飞行员的巨大损失，被证明是不可替代的，日本人也失去了对海洋或天空的统治权。

Despite the delay to the American offensives, the rest of the war proceeded largely the same as OTL until the end, due to the focus on the pacific counterbalancing the 9 months lost. The pacific front is certainly more destructive than OTL, but overwhelming US power ensures their eventual dominance over Japan.

尽管美国的进攻有所延迟，但战争的其余部分基本上与OTL一样，重点是太平洋抵消了9个月的损失。太平洋前线当然比OTL更具破坏性，但压倒性的美国力量确保了他们最终对日本的统治。

Kennedy follows the 2-term convention, and with the previous Republican nominee Willkie widely expected to win the election, Chandler easily wins the 1944 D convention against Wallace, with most others unwilling to enter the election they view as doomed. Harry Truman is selected as the Democrat VP candidate, due to the hesitance of others to join what they saw as a sinking ship. The Republican convention nominates Willkie, with Dewey as VP. Willkie was widely expected to win, but shockingly died of a heart attack in October. His premature death threw the Republicans into disarray. Willkie Dewey was chosen as the replacement, with Earl Warren as VP. The youth and inexperience of Dewey greatly undermined his prospects in a time of war, and Chandler just won the election.

肯尼迪遵守了两届任期的惯例。在共和党提名的威尔基很有可能赢得大选的情况下，钱德勒轻松击败华莱士赢得了1944年的全国代表大会。哈里·杜鲁门被选为民主党副总统候选人，因为其他人不愿加入他们眼中的沉船。共和党大会提名威尔基为总统，杜威为副总统。人们普遍认为威尔基会赢，但令人震惊的是他在10月份死于心脏病发作。他的过早去世使共和党陷入混乱。威尔基·杜威被选为接替者，厄尔·沃伦担任副总统。杜威的年轻和缺乏经验极大地破坏了他在战争时期的前景，而钱德勒则赢得了选举。

By early 1945 Japan had been pushed back to their OTL situation, while the war in Europe still dragged on despite the efforts of the weakened US expeditionary force there. Chandler became obsessed with forcing Japan’s unconditional surrender, in part to vindicate his backing of the Pacific First strategy. Despite the opposition of many generals, who believed that Japan could be forced into surrender via blockade, air bombing, and/or waiting for a Soviet invasion of Manchuria; Hiroshima and Nagasaki are nuked. Japan refuses to surrender in part due to the much more destructive war hardening many to refuse surrender, and due to the war in Europe dragging on which allowed Japan to hope to negotiate a peace via the Soviets which would include the continuation of the monarchy, which Chandler had indicated he would not allow. This desire to save the monarchy at all cost made Japanese resistance fierce in spite of their terrible situation.

到1945年初日本已经和OTL差不多。欧洲战争仍在拖延，尽管美国远征军在那里的力量有所削弱。钱德勒痴迷于强迫日本无条件投降，部分原因是为了证明他支持太平洋第一战略。尽管许多将军认为日本可以通过被封锁、空袭和/或苏联入侵满洲而被迫投降。但即使广岛和长崎都被核武器攻击，日本仍然拒绝投降。一部分原因是战争更具破坏性使得一些人更加强硬，另一部分则是欧洲战争的拖延让日本认为有希望通过苏联谈判和平，尤其是延续君主制，因为钱德勒曾表示他不允许延续君主制。这种不惜一切代价拯救君主制的愿望使得日本尽管处境艰难，日本进行了激烈的抵抗。

With surrender not forthcoming, Chandler authorized Operation Downfall. Operation Olympic was launched in October 1945, and was immensely bloody, but achieved the conquest of Kyūshū by the end of the year. Tactical nukes were not used due to the reports of nuclear fallout from the previous bombings. In September Germany surrendered, although pockets of German forces lasted until early 46. Operation Coronet then occurred in February 46, and was even bloodier. The USSR then invaded Manchuria in April 46. Facing the prospects of the complete destruction of Japan itself, the emperor announced his unconditional surrender on May 2nd 1946.

由于投降尚未到来，钱德勒授权了“垮台行动”。极其血腥的“奥林匹克行动”于1945年10月发起，在年底征服了九州。由于有报道称前几次爆炸产生了核辐射，所以战术核武器没有投入使用。9月德国投降，尽管德国军队的一小部分一直持续到46年初。更加血腥的王冠行动随后发生在1946年2月。苏联随后于4月入侵满洲。面对日本彻底毁灭的前景，天皇于1946年5月2日宣布无条件投降。

Despite the massive casualties in Japan causing great domestic conflict, Chandler clinched the election in 1948, despite the victory of Dewey being widely viewed as inevitable, especially with a strong 3rd party run by the Progressive Parties’ Henry A Wallace. Chandler’s next term was spent mainly dealing with the aftermath of the war and the occupation of Japan, which really wasn’t going well. He began to descend into megalomania and eccentric behavior. The Republicans saw their opportunity to finally win an election, and nominated the war hero Eisenhower.

尽管对日作战的伤亡造成了巨大的国内冲突，特别是在进步党的亨利·华莱士领导的第三党的情况下杜威的胜利被广泛认为是不可避免的，钱德勒还是在1948年赢得了选举。钱德勒的下一个任期主要是处理不顺利的战争的后果和对日本的占领。他开始变得狂妄自大，行为古怪。共和党人看到了他们最终赢得选举的机会，提名战争英雄艾森豪威尔。

He won in a landslide on a platform of winding the occupation down, and did this by declaring the Republic of Japan in 1950. The rest of his presidency occurred largely as OTL, and played a great part in sparking the Cold War. Relations were still frosty with Europe, and the Soviets were already the enemy; so, when Eisenhower accepted the entry of the KMT-led China into the US-dominated United Nations, the seeds were sown for much conflict down the line. He did however enact a mini-Marshall plan to boost the European fight against communism, called the Dulles Plan. It was, however, funded much less than OTL. On the domestic front, Eisenhower not only desegregated the armed forces, but signed the Civil Rights Acts of 1957 and 1960, after winning another landslide in 1956.

他在结束占领的平台上以压倒性优势获胜，并在1950年宣布日本为共和国。他的其余任期和OTL差不多。在引发冷战方面他也发挥了重要作用。与欧洲的关系仍然冷淡，苏联已经是敌人，因此当艾森豪威尔接受由烤馒头领导的中国加入美国主导的联合国时，冲突的种子已经播下。他确实制定了一项小型马歇尔计划以推动欧洲反共斗争，称为杜勒斯计划。然而它的资金远远少于OTL。在国内方面，艾森豪威尔不仅解除了武装部队的种族隔离，在1956年赢得另一次压倒性胜选后签署了1957年和1960年的《民权法案》。

However, the Japanese front was far less rosy. Despite the declaration of the Japanese republic, there were still a very large number of troops fighting the various insurgencies and trying to keep it together. This was mainly supported by Richard Nixon, Eisenhower’s VP and a big believer in domino theory. He desperately didn't want to be seen as a member of the administration that "lost" Japan. He supported putting more troops there, escalating matters, hidden bombing raids, while keeping the public face of, "yes we're definitely withdrawing"; (basically his OTL Vietnam policy).

日本前线却远没有那么乐观。尽管宣布了日本共和国的建立，仍有大量军队与各种叛乱进行战斗。这主要得到了艾森豪威尔副总统理查德·尼克松的支持，他是多米诺骨牌理论的坚定支持者。他极不希望被视为“失去”日本的政府成员。他支持在那里增兵，升级事态，隐蔽轰炸，同时保持公众的面孔，“是的，我们肯定要撤军”(基本上是他的OTL越南政策）。

Eisenhower was content to let Nixon deal with Japan, especially after he suffered a heart attack and stroke in 1955/1957, which gave Nixon great power within the administration. However, as his administration neared the end, Nixon’s dealings were revealed. (Basically the Pentagon Papers). However, Nixon gave the Checkers Speech which defended his actions to the hilt, winning significant public approval in the build up to the 1960 election.

艾森豪威尔满足于让尼克松与日本打交道，特别是在他1955和1957年心脏病发作和中风之后，这给了尼克松在政府中巨大的权力。但当他的政府接近尾声时，尼克松的交易被揭露了(基本上是五角大楼文件）。尼克松发表了跳棋演讲极力为自己的行为辩护，他在为1960年大选做准备的过程中赢得了公众的广泛认可。

The son of JPK, who is still widely regarded as a good president, JFK ran on a reformer mantle of going back to the moderate New Deal policies of his dad and actually withdrawing from Japan. In an extremely close and controversial election, JFK wins the presidency, despite losing the popular vote by 0.2% to Nixon.

作为JPK的儿子，JFK被广泛认为是一位优秀的总统。他披上了改革者的外衣，回到了他父亲温和的新政政策，并从日本撤军。在一场势均力敌、充满争议的选举中，JFK赢得了总统宝座，尽管他以0.2%的选票输给了尼克松。

JFK has been president for just under a year as the game starts. He has spent the time focusing on preparing for the US withdrawal from Japan, which occurred just 2 months before game start (1962). He has also started expanding the New Deal, and taking cautious steps towards greater civil rights legislation.

随着游戏开始，肯尼迪担任总统还不到一年。他把时间花在为美国从日本撤军做准备上，这场撤军发生在游戏开始前两个月（1962年）。他还开始谨慎的扩大新政，争取更好的民权立法。

And so hear we are, the actual game itself. First, here are the factions for each party. You should note that not every faction is necessarily electable, but most are. And without further ado, the USA’s starting situation in TRO.

所以现在，我们就来到了游戏本体。首先，这张图表现了两党内的各个派系。需要注意的是不是每个派系都会被选上，虽然大多数都可以，以及美国在TRO的开局局势。

As you can see, America’s situation is very precarious, beset by conflict and political division. However, JFK is confident that he will be able to steer the ship to calmer waters in no time. Indeed, he has already spent time working to improve relations with the Entente Commonwealth Organization, the faction of the UK and France. When in February 1962, Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalizes the Suez Canal, Kennedy is sure that he can bring peace to the Middle East.

正如你们所见，美国的局势受到冲突和政治分裂的困扰非常不稳定。但肯尼迪有信心驾驶这艘船到平静的水域。事实上，他已经花时间致力于改善与英法的协约联邦组织的关系。1962年2月，纳赛尔将苏伊士运河收归国有，JFK确信他能够为中东带来和平。

However, fate is not on Kennedy's side, as Anthony Eden, UK PM, flat out refuses the USA’s attempts at mediation. Kennedy is forced to respond in kind, and adopts a foreign policy hostile to the ECO; and truly heats up the cold war. (See our previous leak on this topic.)

然而，命运没有垂青JFK，因为英国首相安东尼·伊登断然拒绝美国的调解努力。JFK被迫以同样的方式作出回应并采取了敌视协约联邦组织的外交政策，真正的使冷战升温(请参考之前苏伊士运河危机的leak）。

Despite this setback, Kennedy is still confident that he will fix America. JFK’s first port of call is to start rebuilding the USA’s international image following the disasters of Japan and Suez. He meets with his Secretary of Defense, Maxwell Taylor, but also former first lady Eleanor Roosevelt, who had become a tireless advocate for peace since her late husband’s presidency. He can then choose between adopting a hawkish or dovish foreign policy, which will have great consequence for the USA going forward, as well as nations as far flung as Brazil, China, and the Philippines.

尽管遭遇了这一挫折，JFK仍然相信他将修复美国。他的第一个落脚点是在日本和苏伊士灾难后开始重建美国的国际形象。他会见了他的国防部长麦克斯韦·泰勒，还有前第一夫人埃莉诺·罗斯福。自从已故丈夫担任总统以来，埃莉诺·罗斯福一直不懈地倡导和平。然后，他可以选择采取鹰派或鸽派外交政策，这将对美国以及巴西、中国和菲律宾等遥远国家的未来产生重大影响。

On the domestic front, JFK works hand in hand with his friend and Vice President, Estes Kefauver. Together, they work to weaken big business and improve consumer standards. A speech by Estes on such policy is of far greater consequence than he first realizes, for if he gives it, Estes Kefauver will die of a heart attack. The nation is in shock, and JFK mourns his friend. As a result of this tragedy, Hale Boggs is now next in line for president. Boggs, Speaker of the House, was only elected to that position recently, after the death of Sam Rayburn, largely due to Chandler’s continued influence within the Democratic Party.

在国内方面，JFK与他的朋友兼副总统埃斯特斯·凯福弗携手合作。它们共同努力削弱大企业，提高消费者标准。埃斯特斯就这一政策发表的演讲比他最初意识到的要重要得多，因为如果他发表演讲，他就将死于心脏病发作。由于这场悲剧，黑尔·博格斯现在是下一位总统候选人。众议院议长博格斯是在山姆·雷伯恩去世后不久才当选这一职位的，这主要是因为钱德勒在民主党中的持续影响力。

However, the hand of fate may choose to act a different way, and Estes can survive unharmed.

但是，命运会以不同的方式出现，正如埃斯特斯也许可以存活。

So far we have ignored the elephant in the room: civil rights, which has somewhat been JFK’s strategy so far too. While he has made significant efforts to combat racial discrimination, he has refused to make the moral argument against racism, still wary of Dixiecrat influence over the party. His brother and Attorney General RFK has even authorized the wiretapping of MLK. Such a moderate stance is, however, soon to change.

到目前为止，我们一直在忽略房中之象：民权，这在某种程度上也是JFK的策略。尽管他为反对种族歧视做出了重大努力，但他拒绝提出反对种族主义的道德论据，仍然担心南方民主党人对该党的影响。他的兄弟兼总检察长RFK甚至授权对马丁路德金进行窃听。不过，这种温和的立场很快就会改变。

Before that though, and now we have covered JFK’s first steps as president, you can now see his full, Focus Tree. It is at this point that I would like to give a shoutout to our amazing art team who have worked tirelessly to produce these amazing icons.

不过在这之前，我们想展示一下jfk当选总统后的第一步，现在你能看到这一步完整的国策树。现在我要给与不停工作制作这些漂亮图标的美术组一个大大的赞。

Now that is covered, let us return to JFK’s civil rights policies, because they are about to radically change. The spark that lights this fire occurs in Birmingham, Alabama. This riot prompts RFK to arrange a meeting with civil rights activists to discuss the administration's next steps. The criticism RFK receives at that meeting makes him question everything the administration has done to improve civil rights, a feeling he relays to his brother.

现在我们回到JFK的民权政策上来，因为他们即将发生极大地变化。点燃这场大火的火花发生在阿拉巴马州的伯明翰。一场骚乱促使RFK安排与民权活动家会面讨论政府的下一步行动。RFK在那次会议上受到的批评使他质疑政府为改善民权所做的一切，他将这种感觉转达给了他的兄弟。

At the same time, events are in motion that cannot be undone - George Wallace makes his play and attempts to prevent the racial integration of the University of Alabama, personally standing in the schoolhouse door to stop its integration. Imbued with newfound radicalism, JFK issues Executive Order 11111, federalizes the Alabama National Guard, and forces the universities’ integration. JFK then delivers his Report to the American People on Civil Rights, where he finally makes the moral argument against racism and discrimination. The day ends in poignant tragedy with the murder of civil rights activist Medgar Evers. With this new radicalism, JFK gains a new focus tree.

同时事态的发展是无法返回的——乔治·华莱士试图阻止阿拉巴马大学的种族融合，他亲自站在校舍门口阻止学生进入。在新的激进主义的影响下，JFK总统发布了11111号行政命令将阿拉巴马州国民警卫队联邦化并强制大学合并。JFK向美国人民发表了关于民权的报告，在报告中，他最终提出了反对种族主义和歧视的道德论据。这一天以民权活动家梅德加·埃弗斯被谋杀的惨剧结束。有了这种新的激进主义，肯尼迪获得了新的国策树。

JFK now firmly commits himself to the cause of Civil Rights. In an effort to increase public support for them, he can choose between funding the March on Washington, or speaking at it. He also begins drafting legislation for a definitive Civil Rights Act to settle the issue once and for all, defeating amendments that could derail the process. He also begins planning future endeavors, asking his advisors to prepare the War on Poverty for 1964.

肯尼迪现在坚定地致力于民权事业。为了增加公众对他们的支持，他可以选择是资助华盛顿游行或是在游行上发言。他还开始起草最终民权法案的立法以一劳永逸地解决这一问题，否决可能破坏这一进程的修正案。他还开始规划未来的努力，要求他的顾问们为1964年的反贫困战争做准备。

Then, one sunny day in Dallas, tragedy rears its ugly head once more. JFK is assassinated. I can already hear your questions, or sighs of exasperation; so I will say just this. In patch 0.1 of TRO, JFK will always die. After that? Well, only death may pay for life.

于是，在达拉斯一个阳光明媚的日子里，悲剧又一次露出了丑陋的面孔：JFK被刺杀了。我知道你们想问什么，所以我就明说了：0.1版本里JFK必死。之后呢？好吧，只有死亡能报答生命。

It is now that the true consequences of Estes Kefauver’s heart attack are laid bare, and the fates of the US begin to diverge totally. Let us first address the timeline where Kefauver lives.

现在，埃斯特斯·凯福弗心脏病发作的真正后果已经揭露，美国的命运开始完全分化。让我们先谈谈凯福弗存货的时间线。

Estes Kefauver is sworn in as the 38th President of the United States.

凯福弗会宣誓成为第38届美利坚总统。

In his eulogy for his departed friend, Kefauver lays out his plans for a strong Civil Rights Act to be passed as soon as possible, as well as policies to tackle crime and corruption. Recognising that his ill health rules him out of continuing the presidency, Kefauver endorses Hubert Humphrey to be the 1964 Democratic Candidate for President. He then ensures the passage of a strong Civil Rights Act.

在为已故朋友的悼词中，凯福弗阐述了他计划尽快通过一项强有力的民权法案，以及打击犯罪和腐败的政策。由于认识到自己的健康状况不佳使他无法继续担任总统，凯福弗支持休伯特·汉弗莱成为1964年民主党总统候选人。随后他将确保通过一项强有力的民权法案。

Kefauver’s, and the Democratic Party’s, opponents are quick to move however. Strom Thurmond and George Wallace join forces to battle for the presidency, and threaten to take the whole of the South away from the Democratic party for good. Even more concerningly, Richard Nixon, the Republican Candidate for President, adopts an electoral strategy to attempt to gain the electoral votes of the border states in order to catapult himself to the White House yet again. Kefauver has done what he can, and the election rolls on irregardless.

然而凯福弗和民主党的反对者很快就会采取行动。斯特罗姆·瑟蒙德和乔治·华莱士将联手争夺总统宝座并威胁要将整个南方永远从民主党手中夺走。更令人担忧的是，共和党总统候选人理查德·尼克松采取了一种新的选举策略试图获得边境各州的选举人票以便再次入主白宫。凯福弗已经尽了他所能，选举毫无顾忌地进行着。

If Humphrey wins, Kefauver can relax. Although he knows there is much work to be done, he has finished Kennedy’s work and secured his legacy. Now, he can enjoy his retirement and watch as the future unfolds.

如果汉弗莱赢了，凯福弗可以放松。尽管他知道还有很多工作要做，但他已经完成了肯尼迪的工作，确保了他的遗产。现在，他可以享受退休生活，观察未来的发展。

If Nixon wins, Kefauver can’t help but feel incomplete; he completed Kennedy’s work, but Nixon threatens his legacy. As before Kefauver can influence events no longer; all he can do is watch, and worry for the future.

如果尼克松获胜，凯福弗会感到不完整。他完成了肯尼迪的工作，但尼克松威胁着他的遗产。和之前一样，凯福弗不再有影响力；他所能做的就是看着未来并为之担忧。

Let us return to the world where Estes Kefauver has already died of a heart attack, and Hale Boggs is sworn in as the 38th President of the United States.

我们再回到凯福弗已经死亡的世界，那么黑尔·博格斯会宣誓成为第38届美利坚总统。

In his eulogy for the former president, Boggs lays out a moderate plan for a Civil Rights Act, one noticeably weakened from JFK’s original plans. Boggs explains that he seeks unity in this time of crisis. Boggs, not desiring the power of the presidency, does not seek the office at the next election, instead endorsing J. William Fulbright to be the 1964 Democratic Candidate for President. He then pass his weakened Civil Rights Act.

在对前总统的悼词中，博格斯为民权法案提出了一个温和计划。这一计划明显地削弱了肯尼迪最初的计划。博格斯解释说，他在这个危机时刻寻求团结。博格斯不希望获得总统的权力，在下一次选举中不寻求总统职位，而是支持威廉·富布赖特提名为1964年民主党总统候选人。随后他会通过被削弱的民权法案。

Fulbright, recognizing that he cannot win an election without the support of the liberal and progressive factions of his own party makes a deal with them. Concerningly for Boggs and Fulbright, Nelson Rockefeller wins the Republican Party nomination, shifting control of the party to the Liberal Republicans. Rockefeller then begins to target Northern states en masse to win him the Presidency he has always dreamed of. Despite the best efforts of both candidates, only one can win the White House.

富布赖特认识到如果没有本党自由派和进步派的支持，他不可能赢得选举。因此他与他们达成了协议。尤其让博格斯和富布赖特担忧的是尼尔森·洛克菲勒赢得了共和党提名，从而将该党的控制权转移给了共和党自由派。洛克菲勒随后开始以北方各州为目标，为他赢得他梦寐以求的总统宝座。尽管两位候选人都尽了最大努力，但只有一位能够赢得白宫。

If Fulbright wins, Boggs can continue his friendship with Fulbright unmarred by any failures, and content in the knowledge that the consensus he helped forge will ensure that America remains strong and stable forevermore.

如果富布赖特获胜，博格斯可以在没有任何失败的情况下继续与富布赖特的友谊，并满足于他帮助达成的共识将确保美国永远保持强大和稳定。

If Rockefeller wins, Boggs is stricken, knowing that his Civil Rights Act is doomed to revision, and that the consensus he tried so hard to mold will soon lie scattered on the floor of Rockefeller’s ego. However, both he and Fulbright are confident that when Rockefeller’s chickens come home to roost, the Democratic Party will be waiting for him.

如果洛克菲勒获胜，博格斯就会大吃一惊，因为他知道自己的《民权法》注定要修改。而他如此努力塑造的共识很快就会散落在洛克菲勒自我的地板上。然而他和富布赖特都相信，当洛克菲勒回到家中时，民主党会等着他。